Economic Interest of Gulf states Ongoing Sudans' War

Ongoing conflict in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has enclaved into more than a domestic crisis; it has become scapegoat of regional economic integration. Where Gulf states at the front line . The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, looking for vast economic interests, that are deeply interrelated with Sudan’s war economy.

Gold: Topics of Gold in conflict 

The main factor of Gulf countries involvement in war for Sudan’s gold reserves. Last year, Sudan produced roughly 64 tonnes of gold, valued at more than US$1.5 billion in legal exports, with the UAE receiving the lion’s share. Smuggled gold adds billions more to the war economy, creating both financial leverage and ethical scrutiny for Gulf investors. Analysts estimate that smuggling accounts for 70–96 tonnes annually, valued between US$7.7 billion and US$10.5 billion.

“The UAE’s role in Sudanese gold exports is enormous,” says a regional trade analyst. “Much of the gold flowing to the Gulf underpins local industries, but the opaque channels and links to armed groups complicate both governance and reputational risk.”

Infrastructure and Agriculture: Betting on Stability

Beyond mining, Gulf investment in infrastructure and agriculture is substantial. The UAE’s AD Ports Group and Invictus Investment have committed US$6 billion to develop the Abu Amama port and an adjacent economic zone on the Red Sea. This includes 415,000 acres of agricultural land and a 450 km roadway linking the port to inland areas, aiming to secure food supply chains and trade logistics.

Saudi Arabia has also announced plans to expand its Sudanese investments, although specific figures remain undisclosed. Agricultural and infrastructure projects promise long-term returns, but these ventures remain vulnerable amid ongoing fighting and the destruction of key supply routes.

Economic Leverage Meets Strategic Calculus

Sudan’s location along the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa gives Gulf states strategic leverage, offering access to vital shipping lanes and regional trade corridors. For the UAE, alignment with the RSF has provided political and economic influence, while Saudi Arabia has sought a mediating role to protect its investments and reputation.

However, the war has already disrupted economic flows. The UAE’s de facto embargo on flights and shipping in mid-2025 led to a collapse of legal gold exports from army-controlled areas and contributed to the Sudanese pound plummeting from ~2,200 to ~3,600 per US dollar. Agricultural projects, logistics investments, and port developments all hang in the balance, dependent on stability that remains elusive.

Contradictions and Risks

Gulf states face a difficult paradox: their economic ambitions require peace, yet some involvement, particularly in the gold sector, inadvertently sustains the conflict. This duality exposes investors to financial loss, reputational damage, and international scrutiny. The perception that Gulf actors are benefiting from Sudan’s war economy could undermine their credibility both regionally and globally.

“The Gulf has the resources and influence to stabilize Sudan, but without decisive action, investments risk becoming stranded assets,” notes a Sudanese economic expert.

The Path Ahead

The Gulf states now stand at a crossroads. Protecting billions in investments, securing long-term food supply chains, and maintaining influence along the Red Sea corridor all depend on genuine efforts to stabilize Sudan. The alternative is economic loss, strategic setback, and further entanglement in a brutal and protracted conflict.

Sudan’s conflict illustrates the intricate link between war, wealth, and geopolitics. Gulf states are not passive observers; their economic ambitions are deeply intertwined with the country’s resources and strategic geography. The decisions they make today — whether to foster stability or exploit conflict-driven opportunities — will define not only their financial returns but also their role as credible actors in the Horn of Africa. For Sudan, the hope lies in whether these investments can be transformed into engines of development rather than instruments of prolonged war.

Sources: BBC, Reuters